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Sequencing of Returns Calculator

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Sequencing of Returns (Ages 65–95)

Randomize yearly returns, then compare Original vs Reversed sequences to see sequence risk. Assumes withdrawals at the start of each year.
Ending Balance (Original)
—
Ending Balance (Reversed)
—
Failure Age (Orig)
—
Failure Age (Rev)
—
“Failure age” = first age where balance drops to ≤ $0 given assumptions.
Age Return % (Orig) Balance End (Orig) Return % (Rev) Balance End (Rev)
Assumes: withdrawals at start of year as a % of the initial balance (inflation-adjusted annually), then return is applied.

Definitions & Assumptions

Sequence of Returns Risk
The order of gains/losses matters when you’re taking withdrawals. Early losses can deplete balances faster even if the long-run average return is the same.
Original vs Reversed
“Original” uses the returns in the listed order. “Reversed” flips that order (last becomes first) to illustrate pure sequence effects.
Withdrawals
Taken at the start of each year as a fixed % of the initial balance. The dollar amount then increases annually by the “Withdrawal Inflation” rate.
Return Model
Random returns are drawn from a normal distribution with chosen Mean and Stdev (Box–Muller). A Floor/Cap clamps each year’s return.
Random Seed
Starting value for the pseudo-random generator. Same inputs + same seed → identical path; change the seed to see a different (but statistically similar) path.
Custom Returns
Paste 31 comma-separated % values for ages 65→95 to override randomness. Invalid input falls back to random generation.
Failure Age
First age where balance hits ≤ $0. If never depleted by 95, this shows “—”.
Balances & Chart
End-of-year balances (after return) are rounded to whole dollars. The chart plots Original and Reversed end balances across ages.
Sort & Reverse Buttons
“Worst→Best” sorts annual returns ascending; “Best→Worst” sorts descending; “Reverse” flips current order. All preserve your other inputs.

Illustrative only—no taxes, fees, trading costs, or behavior effects. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

Yes, all calculators on the site are completely free to use.  You don’t need to sign up or provide any personal information.

The calculators provide estimates only.  They are based on the numbers you enter and standard formulas (such as compound interest or amortization schedules).  Actual results may vary depending on factors like taxes, fees, or individual financial circumstances.

The calculators are designed to help you explore scenarios and compare options. They are not a substitute for personalized financial advice. For a detailed plan tailored to your goals, we recommend scheduling a consultation.

Most calculators do not automatically include taxes or inflation unless specifically stated.  You can often adjust the interest rate or contribution assumptions to approximate these factors.

Yes, some calculators allow you to choose how interest is compounded (monthly, quarterly, annually, etc.).  This flexibility helps model real-world savings and investment scenarios more accurately.

That’s common! These tools are meant to give you a baseline estimate. If your situation involves unique factors (tax rules, irregular cash flows, multiple accounts), schedule a conversation so we can customize the numbers.

No.  All calculations run in your browser. We do not save or transmit your inputs.

Have Questions? Let’s Talk.

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